Arctic warming threatens over $100 billion in permafrost-dependent infrastructure across Northern territories, yet existing risk assessment frameworks lack spatiotemporal validation, uncertainty quantification, and operational decision-support capabilities. W e present a hybrid physics-machine learning framework integrating 2.9 million observations from 171,605 locations (2005-2021) combining permafrost fraction data with climate reanalysis. Our stacked ensemble model (Random F orest + Histogram Gradient Boosting + Elastic Net) achieves R=0.980 (RMSE=5.01 pp) with rigorous spatiotemporal cross-validation preventing data leakage. T o address machine learning limitations in extrapolative climate scenarios, we develop a hybrid approach combining learned climate-permafrost relationships (60%) with physical permafrost sensitivity models (40%, -10 pp/C). Under RCP8.5 forcing (+5C over 10 years), we project mean permafrost fraction decline of -20.3 pp (median: -20.0 pp), with 51.5% of Arctic Russia experiencing over 20 percentage point loss. Infrastructure risk classification identifies 15% high-risk zones (25% medium-risk) with spatially explicit uncertainty maps. Our framework represents the largest validated permafrost ML dataset globally, provides the first operational hybrid physics-ML forecasting system for Arctic infrastructure, and delivers open-source tools enabling probabilistic permafrost projections for engineering design codes and climate adaptation planning. The methodology is generalizable to other permafrost regions and demonstrates how hybrid approaches can overcome pure data-driven limitations in climate change applications.

Long-term groundwater level (GWL) measurement is vital for effective policymaking and recharge estimation using annual maxima and minima. However, current methods prioritize short-term predictions and lack multi-year applicability, limiting their utility. Moreover, sparse in-situ measurements lead to reliance on low-resolution satellite data like GLDAS as the ground truth for Machine Learning models, further constraining accuracy. To overcome these challenges, we first develop an ML model to mitigate data gaps, achieving $R^2$ scores of 0.855 and 0.963 for maximum and minimum GWL predictions, respectively. Subsequently, using these predictions and well observations as ground truth, we train an Upsampling Model that uses low-resolution (25 km) GLDAS data as input to produce high-resolution (2 km) GWLs, achieving an excellent $R^2$ score of 0.96. Our approach successfully upscales GLDAS data for 2003-2024, allowing high-resolution recharge estimations and revealing critical trends for proactive resource management. Our method allows upsampling of groundwater storage (GWS) from GLDAS to high-resolution GWLs for any points independently of officially curated piezometer data, making it a valuable tool for decision-making.

Years before she became the peculiar central thread linking a double homicide in Pennsylvania, the fatal shooting of a federal agent in Vermont and the murder of an elderly landlord in California, a computer programmer bought a sailboat. The programmer was known to friends, foes and followers as Ziz. She had come to the San Francisco Bay Area in 2016 as part of an influx of young people arriving to study the dangers that artificial intelligence could pose to humanity. In one of the most expensive regions of the United States, however, it is difficult to save the world when you can't make rent. So she bought a boat for 600 and moored it next to a friend's vessel in a marina. For five years, she used it as an occasional, cramped bunk. In her waking hours, she worked on a blog of provocative and increasingly extreme ideas about confrontation and retaliation. At night, she fell asleep as the boat rocked back and forth, drifting with the flotsam of greater Silicon Valley. Then, on the night of 19 August 2022, her sister and a friend reported that they saw her fall overboard. The Coast Guard and local authorities scrambled boats and aircraft. After a nearly 30-hour search, neither Ziz nor her body could be found. A newspaper in Alaska, where she was born, published a short obituary referring to her by her birth name: "Jack Amadeus LaSota left our lives but not our hearts on Aug 19 after a boating accident. Loving adventure, friends and family, music, blueberries, biking, computer games and animals, you are missed." Ziz's ideas did not die in the waters of the California coast. She had faked her drowning and gone underground, before being arrested last month in western Maryland and charged with trespassing and illegal transportation of a firearm. The targets of Ziz's ire, who include some of Silicon Valley's most prominent intellectuals, have taken security precautions. "Ziz is not stupid," someone familiar with her, who asked to remain anonymous, told me. "This is a very smart person – both smart and crazy." Ziz's writing had polarized members of a niche but influential movement of AI theorists and tech bloggers who call themselves the "rationalists". The movement is less about specific ideas than it is about an ethos – applying rigorous, mathematically informed thinking to AI, philosophy, psychology and the big questions of our time. Rationalists are odd, though often charming, people. They tend to be fantasy and sci-fi geeks, use lots of jargon and think intensely about things other people barely think about at all.

Post Millennial senior editor Andy Ngo unpacks what led to the arrests of members of an apparent transgender vegan cult on'The Ingraham Angle.' The apparent head of a radical transgender cult linked to six killings, including a U.S. Border Patrol agent, told a Maryland judge last week, "I haven't done anything wrong" while pleading for access to vegan food behind bars. "I might starve to death if you cannot answer me," Jack Amadeus LaSota, 34, who goes by "Ziz," told Judge Erich Bean during a bail hearing in Allegany County District Court in Maryland on Feb. 18, according to audio obtained by the San Francisco Chronicle. "I need the jail to be ordered for me to have a vegan diet. It's more important than whatever this hearing is."

Accurate and efficient modeling of Earth's ionosphere has a significant impact on research and operational communities due to its effects on radio communications, radar performance, [1, 2, 3] and satellite drag [4]. Success in forecasting key parameters such as the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and height (hmF2) and the total electron content (TEC) allows one to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of ionospheric variability on such systems. Over the past decades, many modeling approaches have been developed to predict these ionospheric parameters with increasing accuracy and skill. These models may be broadly categorized as empirical, physics-based, and, more recently, machine learning methods. Empirical models often rely on extensive historical datasets to establish statistical relationships between ionospheric parameters and geophysical variables. The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model [5] is a widely used standard that provides monthly averages of various ionospheric parameters based on many decades of past observations. IRI has seen continual development and improvements over the years, adding a host of submodels used to capture specific aspects of the ionosphere such as the CCIR [6, 7] and URSI [8] foF2 models for representing the diurnal variations of the peak plasma density across the globe, the AMTB [9] and SHU-2015 [10] models for even more harmonic expansions of hmF2, and NeQuick 2 [11] for improved topside electron density accuracy and thus better estimates of TEC [12, 13]. So, while large empirical models like IRI continue to improve, the number of these available options needed to address each domain and source of variance in the ionosphere also grows, and choosing the appropriate settings may be prohibitive without expert knowledge of each submodel.

Mapping land surface disturbances supports disaster response, resource and ecosystem management, and climate adaptation efforts. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an invaluable tool for disturbance mapping, providing consistent time-series images of the ground regardless of weather or illumination conditions. Despite SAR's potential for disturbance mapping, processing SAR data to an analysis-ready format requires expertise and significant compute resources, particularly for large-scale global analysis. In October 2023, NASA's Observational Products for End-Users from Remote Sensing Analysis (OPERA) project released the near-global Radiometric Terrain Corrected SAR backscatter from Sentinel-1 (RTC-S1) dataset, providing publicly available, analysis-ready SAR imagery. In this work, we utilize this new dataset to systematically analyze land surface disturbances. As labeling SAR data is often prohibitively time-consuming, we train a self-supervised vision transformer - which requires no labels to train - on OPERA RTC-S1 data to estimate a per-pixel distribution from the set of baseline imagery and assess disturbances when there is significant deviation from the modeled distribution. To test our model's capability and generality, we evaluate three different natural disasters - which represent high-intensity, abrupt disturbances - from three different regions of the world. Across events, our approach yields high quality delineations: F1 scores exceeding 0.6 and Areas Under the Precision-Recall Curve exceeding 0.65, consistently outperforming existing SAR disturbance methods. Our findings suggest that a self-supervised vision transformer is well-suited for global disturbance mapping and can be a valuable tool for operational, near-global disturbance monitoring, particularly when labeled data does not exist.

Calving front position variation of marine-terminating glaciers is an indicator of ice mass loss and a crucial parameter in numerical glacier models. Deep Learning (DL) systems can automatically extract this position from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery, enabling continuous, weather- and illumination-independent, large-scale monitoring. This study presents the first comparison of DL systems on a common calving front benchmark dataset. A multi-annotator study with ten annotators is performed to contrast the best-performing DL system against human performance. The best DL model's outputs deviate 221 m on average, while the average deviation of the human annotators is 38 m. This significant difference shows that current DL systems do not yet match human performance and that further research is needed to enable fully automated monitoring of glacier calving fronts. The study of Vision Transformers, foundation models, and the inclusion and processing strategy of more information are identified as avenues for future research.

Radio remains a pervasive medium for mass information dissemination, with AM/FM stations reaching more Americans than either smartphone-based social networking or live television. Increasingly, radio broadcasts are also streamed online and accessed over the Internet. We present WavePulse, a framework that records, documents, and analyzes radio content in real-time. While our framework is generally applicable, we showcase the efficacy of WavePulse in a collaborative project with a team of political scientists focusing on the 2024 Presidential Elections. We use WavePulse to monitor livestreams of 396 news radio stations over a period of three months, processing close to 500,000 hours of audio streams. These streams were converted into time-stamped, diarized transcripts and analyzed to track answer key political science questions at both the national and state levels. Our analysis revealed how local issues interacted with national trends, providing insights into information flow. Our results demonstrate WavePulse's efficacy in capturing and analyzing content from radio livestreams sourced from the Web. Code and dataset can be accessed at \url{https://wave-pulse.io}.

Fox News' Bill Hemmer discusses his trip to join the U.S. Navy in the Arctic Circle and tour a nuclear submarine. When the Biden administration nominated Michael Sfraga to be special ambassador to the Arctic, he failed to disclose his deep history with Russia and China. The Senate is expected to vote on Sfraga's confirmation on Tuesday – over a year after his nomination, which was held up by Republicans who claim he is too close to U.S. adversaries. Sfraga has traveled extensively across Russia and China, and even spoke at an event where Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the headline address. An Alaskan and geographer by background, Sfraga chairs the Polar Institute and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission.

Recently, ACM FAccT published an article by Kwegyir-Aggrey and colleagues (2023), critiquing the use of AUC ROC in predictive analytics in several domains. In this article, we offer a critique of that article. Specifically, we highlight technical inaccuracies in that paper's comparison of metrics, mis-specification of the interpretation and goals of AUC ROC, the article's use of the accuracy metric as a gold standard for comparison to AUC ROC, and the article's application of critiques solely to AUC ROC for concerns that would apply to the use of any metric. We conclude with a re-framing of the very valid concerns raised in that article, and discuss how the use of AUC ROC can remain a valid and appropriate practice in a well-informed predictive analytics approach taking those concerns into account. We conclude by discussing the combined use of multiple metrics, including machine learning bias metrics, and AUC ROC's place in such an approach. Like broccoli, AUC ROC is healthy, but also like broccoli, researchers and practitioners in our field shouldn't eat a diet of only AUC ROC.